Sitting at 5-7 on the season with the . The Raiders move up one spot to 26th but the Broncos drop three spots from 22nd to 25th. Without Week 1, the Dallas offense would move from 14th to seventh in DVOA. If you suck at drafting, there's little point to tearing it down. Currently, Football Outsiders sees the Bucs making the playoffs at a 52 percent chance. Teams in the hunt with at least five wins are listed. Here are the early odds for the national semifinals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. We have the latest College Football Playoff odds and best CFP predictions. TheSportsGeek looks to add +3.5SPREAD -110ODDS OUR PICK CHARGERS PLACE BET! For the rest of the season, the Chargers face the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses! They are coming off a win in the underdog role over the Alabama Crimson Tide last year. In reply to It's possible that the Jets by davelew. As we've seen, a lot can change in two . So let's do that and take a look. Since backing Georgia two months ago at +215 odds, not much has changed in our view, though. Filtering by Week 11 LAR WRs yielded no results. To best of knowledge you are the only 49ers fan at FO staff. Here's where Football Outsiders has their chances after four weeks: Playoffs: 15.5% Division: 10% Super Bowl: 0.2% The Bears' 0.2% chance at winning the Super Bowl is tied with the Steelers and Dolphins for the 25th "best" odds in the league. They have big College Football Playoff odds to win at +1600. Sign up for our news letter today! Here are the division odds from Football Outsiders: 49ers: 51.2 percent Rams: 25.8 percent Seahawks: 20.1 percent Cardinals: 2.9 percent If they get healthy down the stretch the 49ers are the. Three games this week had a single-game DVOA over 60%, but one of them will not be obvious. Today's episode highlights Kyle Shanahan having a winning record for the first . USC was going to the College Football Playoff. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. Current record: 12-3 | Weighted DVOA: 35.8 percent (1) Clinched playoffs | Super Bowl odds: 25.9 percent Does not account for traded picks. For our look at remaining defensive schedules, I took out Week 18 because I know that a lot of readers will be curious about the fantasy football implications here. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. Filtering by Week 11 ATL LBs yielded no results. Michigan is a juggernaut, though. Editor-in-Chief The College Football Playoff betting odds were definitely interesting last week. Let's call it 6%. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). They do this every week, and they arrive at the projections by running the season 10,000 times. NFL Week 14 - Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Football Outsiders Data Show! The oddsmakers view the matchup between the Bulldogs and Buckeyes as the closer of the two games. They also ran more plays, 59 to 49, meaning that in total they outgained the Jets by nearly 200 yards. USC was going to the College Football Playoff. Fair enough. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Heisman Trophy favorite, Caleb Williams, tore his hamstring on a long run early in the game. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation. Week 14 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 44.5) and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. I'm with you, life has really gotten in the way of me watching the games live and commenting here, but when I've watched replays it's just been so meh. However, who else should be the No. They also have the Vikings with a 42.2 percent chance of getting. The special teams mirage of the first four games was revealed, which doesn't help. Take an offense that relies on the more time consuming run, and a defense that can't stop the time consuming run and you get this team. The Horned Frogs went from afterthought to undefeated regular-season power over the last three months and will take on a Wolverines team that is undefeated and riding high after their second straight Big Ten title. This is not a suggestion to pick up Zach Wilson in fantasy football, but you will notice he's got a huge gap between his passing DYAR and YAR on our passing stats page. In reply to And a good thing it is for by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. #Seahawks +17.7% #TakeFlight +15.8% #GoBucs +11.0% #RuleTheJungle +7.5% #GoPackGo -16.4% #RamsHouse -9.1% #RaiderNation -8.3% #ForTheShoe -5.2% https://footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/playoff-odds" FO Playoff Odds now updated. Reaching the Conference Championship Game. J.J. McCarthy has a far better arm that he gets credit for. Got to love FO (not being sarcastic).
is way better than this. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews), Reaching the Conference Championship Game. 1 Georgia will look to defend its national championship against No. That said, Tampa Bay's playbook is terribly inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play. The game kicks off at 1 pm ET. Or this site doesnt partake in the annual "the Cowboys are this year's sleeper team" articles and "the cowboys might have turned it around" articles whenever they win a game. It also uses ESPN's Football Power Index and the committee's rankings to forecast teams' chances of winning. Alabama would have been in under the 12-team system. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. College Football Week Bowl Game Odds, Opening Lines Friday, December 16, 2022 HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl UAB vs Miami University Fiu First Guess: UAB -10.5 Actual Line: UAB -11.5 Duluth Trading Cure Bowl Troy vs UTSA Fiu First Guess: UTSA -2.5 Actual Line: Troy -2.5 Saturday, December 17, 2022 Wasabi Fenway Bowl Louisville vs Cincinnati TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. That's up from 25.2% last week. (Take out their defense from that game, and the 49ers drop slightly from seventh to eighth.) But playing in a dome, Folk is likely to kick 5 to 6 40-yard field goals to give NE enough points to not have to rely on a last minute punt return TD to score. Ohio State has a tough matchup in the semifinals against Georgia. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. Don't be surprised if the offense improves in terms of points scored or aesthetics from here out and we start hearing narratives about the young receivers starting to figure it out. December 06, 4:02 pm ET. Detroit's loss on Monday night was devastating, as . They are at +350 to beat Georgia and then their next opponent in the championship game. If they do end up at #5, the Cowboys would be likely facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers unless they crumble and lose the division. Another big change belongs to the Minnesota Vikings. Then we are going to make our prediction for the college football National Championship. 4 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl national semifinal, and No. The Patriots ended up with a PGWE of 99.9%, and even if you remove the punt return touchdown they still have PGWE of 98%. On the other hand, those teams had much higher DVOA than this year's Vikings, who are way in last place now. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. TCU and Ohio State may not be perfect, but their resumes are still better than Alabama. The 49ers offense looks better if you take out the Week 1 game played in a monsoon against the Bears with Trey Lance at quarterback instead of Jimmy Garoppolo. I don't remember Dallas matering to 49ers in the last two decades. Meanwhile, Ohio State is coming off of a blowout home loss to rival Michigan. It's a longshot, but in the grand . While the playoffs are still technically possible I gave up on making it after the Tennessee loss. The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: collegefootball | pageType: stories | The Patriots for this game: -10% offense, -60% defense, +10% special teams. (DAVE ratings are explained here.) December 5, 2022 6:09 pm ET. This will be the first time ever in College Football Playoff history that Clemson and Alabama are both left out of the playoffs. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of. 2004-2022 CBS Interactive. They can look better than they are. Check out our Saints vs. They drafted Moss the next season and they pretty good for a few years. Alliteration! The four-team College Football Playoff field is set, and it features three superpowers plus one upstart program that is finally getting its chance. It may happen with the easier schedule. They should have an answer for the Horned Frogs from both angles through the air and ground. Some of it is opponent-adjustment boosts. Football Outsiders' model is less bullish on the Chargers, giving them a 16.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, down from 29.7 percent heading into Week 13. Likeliest foe in the first playoff game? (DVOA ratings are explained here.) It is your responsibility to verify such matters and to know and follow your local laws. 1 target is covered, he has issues working through his progressions. However, the biggest concern for TCU has to be how to stop Donovan Edwards. The casino will be rebranded as Golden Nugget Hotel Want to stay up to date on all of the latest blogs, news, and Picks on The Sports Geek? This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 13 weeks of 2022, . San Francisco is currently 11th on offense and seventh on defense. The Raiders (5-7) have won three . Pittsburgh and Buffalo face average schedules of offenses the rest of the way. Betting analyst Brandon Anderson makes his early picks for the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs below. Your 2022 Big Ten Championship MVP: Donovan Edwards @DEdwards__ x @UMichFootball pic.twitter.com/hrf0hPpAwz. The run game has been very good at times though, just not always used in the best situations so it doesn't help win chances. After selecting Georgia at +215 two months ago, we have been too right to jump off the ship now. NFL Week 13 - There aren't many weeks left of the fantasy season, but now isn't the time to switch off. The Vikings have played the No. Total playoff odds: 93.1% | Weekly change: -2.3%. From Week 12 to 17, they face the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses. Buccaneers Week 13 picks for Monday Night Football on December 5. Just do not expect the same game as last year. The 97 team had a miracle win against the Giants in the playoffs, and then got pounded the next week in SF (the Viking way after every miracle - immediately squash any sense of hope a fan might have). Then finishing with 3 wins gets us back to 95%. Another big winner for Week 11 was the Dallas Cowboys, with 73.5% DVOA for a 40-3 stomping of the Minnesota Vikings. 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. No. And a good thing it is for NE, too, as their offense continues to struggle with the impenetrable barrier that is the opponent's 30-yard line. Perhaps there's a learning curve on that front. VOA often matches the eye test better than DVOA, especially when you don't have time, or camera angles, to really see what was going on. An Aaron Rodgers fantasy football comeback, perhaps? BetMGM books are reporting 73% of bets and 89% . USC were 3-point favorites against the Utes at Allegiant Stadium . TCU is the most unlikely team to win the four-team tournament. With a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the last six weeks, even the advanced statistics are favoring the Dolphins. Expect the defensive pressure to get to Stroud, as well. This comes with one last game before the NFL trade deadline on Nov. 2 . Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Their remaining opponents rank 30th in pass defense. That would be the New England Patriots, even though they needed a last-second punt return touchdown to avoid going to overtime with the New York Jets. We have the best defenses and offensive lines in college football if this is the matchup. TCU vs. Michigan Prediction: 35-20 Michigan Wolverines. The Miami Dolphins will look to keep pace in a tight AFC East divisional race -9.5SPREAD +100ODDS OUR PICK BILLS PLACE BET! So the Chargers go from playing a schedule that's been very easy for their offense and hard for their defense to a schedule that will be very easy for their passing game and defense but hard for their running game. #Seahawks +17.7% #TakeFlight +15.8% #GoBucs +11.0% Perhaps this is somewhat related to the astounding dissonance between conventional passer rating (104.6) and QBR (20.4) for Mac Jones. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 13. The New York Times gives the Bills an 80% chance to win the . This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2023 NFL draft. The hardest schedule of run defenses so far belongs to the Packers, who have an average schedule the rest of the way. He struggled to figure out the Michigan defense last year. So we don't always see how the good defenses are impacting things, just that they don't look good, which is closer to what raw VOA measures. And although NE's pass rush isn't as good as Dallas', unless the Vikings miraculously fixed their OL woes in 5 days, Cousins is likely be facing more of the same in terms of constant pressure. Kansas City (33.2%) and the AFC North (11.8% total, 9.6% for Cincinnati) follow. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. Jacobs (+1800) and Adams (+5000) also have the seventh- and eighth-shortest odds to win Offensive Player of Year. The Pats spied him in the second and he went nowhere. The reigning national champions have been a machine all season long, finishing off their run with a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game. The lines will certainly move between now and New Year's Eve based on a variety of factors, and it'll be interesting to see how things progress during the layoff. It's not that different from other LaFleur years, it's just missing that pass catcher(s) who gets open enough for the occasional shot play that can get them to/into the end zone. Other teams where it gets harder include the New York Giants (23 so far, 4 to go), the Tennessee Titans (21 so far, 6 to go), and the Cincinnati Bengals (18 so far, 5 to go). Did DVOA see the Patriots' performance as a massive defensive tour de force? That starts with the Chiefs (2 so far, 23 to go) but also the Rams (6 so far, 32 to go), the Cardinals (9 so far, 29 to go), and the Saints (10 so far, 28 to go). The Horned Frogs plowed through arguably the toughest schedule in major college football and found ways to get it done in a variety of different ways. College Football Playoff odds No. 4 Ohio State No. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Alabama had the better odds throughout the season. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. The schedule also gets harder for the Giants (26 so far, 2 to go) and the Raiders (23 so far, 3 to go). NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. This year Georgia has a target on their backs going into New Years Eve. There's a chance they could overtake the Eagles for the NFC East lead and the No. Arizona is 7-5 O/U overall, with a 4-2 O/U count at home. Stroud has to learn to read a good defense quickly. Here are the Packers' playoff odds from various sites: FiveThirtyEight: 6 percent Football Outsiders: 8.6 percent New York Times: 11 percent ESPN FPI: 5.0 percent Playoff Status: 3.0. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). In fact, the losers of these games may have moved down even more than the winners moved up. Current SB favorites: #BillsMafia 24.5% #FlyEaglesFly 19.8% #RavensFlock 9.4% #GoBucs 7.3% #ChiefsKingdom 6.6% #GoPackGo 5.1% #DallasCowboys 4.1%. The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. Fields ate them for lunch on 3rd down scrambles, and Allen is likely to do the same in their upcoming games against BUF, both of which they'll likely be trounced in. The Horned Frogs are +7.5 underdogs in the semifinals, and then would be underdogs against Ohio State or Georgia. BACK-TO-BACK.No. Michigan should make it more competitive than a 34-11 loss in their semifinals meeting last New Year's Eve. 28 schedule the rest of the way, much easier. Bills at Patriots Thursday Night - NFL betting odds, picks, tips Week 11 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with an AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills (-4, 43.5) and New England. As for this division, the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation actually has Seattle as a small favorite to win the NFC West right now, so I'm definitely not taking the 49ers at -220. Without that game, the 49ers have 13.6% offensive DVOA which would rank seventh in the league. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. AFC playoff projections 1. NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. While the shape of the playoff race has been clear for some time, we still don't actually know any single team will actually be playing football in late January; historic collapses are still possible, if not exactly probable. In reply to Why would writers being by greybeard. Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) November 7, 2022 The NFL is a truly ridiculous league. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. So far, the Texans' schedule of opposing offenses has ranked 26th. Per Football Outsiders, a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (-3) in Week 7 sliced the Niners' chances of making the playoffs by 20.9 percent. The Cowboys are now ahead of the Eagles for the NFC East lead in DVOA although the Eagles are still two games ahead where it really matters, the win column. Do we have a rematch between Ohio State and Michigan coming up? NE's D, though, seems tuned to take on pocket passers, not mobile guys. "The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year.". (Nevertheless, the playoff odds report still gives Philadelphia a 75% chance to win.). That's a little better than a 1/17 shot. 1 seed, and a much slimmer possibility they slip to a lower Wild Card slot. Cin(10-1), NE(11-6), NYJ(13-12), LAC(22-32!) The Chargers' schedule is even more fun when you look at the offenses they face. It's Trading Places Week at the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, with a . pic.twitter.com/O0hrpCxIDx. New England enters Week 14 with a 5-7 O/U mark on the year, including 3-3 O/U on the road. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. As in, the number one -- the number of wins the Patriots have over the Broncos to give them an edge to land the top seed in the . It looks like Week 11 snap count data may have been added for SF/ARI, but not other games: Detroit has climbed into the top half of the league by DVOA! 1 Georgia (-7) vs. No. I just can't figure out what DVOA sees in the Packers offense to say it's the 9th best. It's also interesting to note that the Eagles no longer have the easiest schedule in the division; the Cowboys' remaining schedule is easier than Philadelphia's by average DVOA of opponent. Updated Football Outsiders playoff odds! Bring the adjustments in and that jumps to 16th and 5th and thus 9th overall. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 11. The Patriots moved up to first in defense and overall improved by nearly five percentage points of DVOA, although that only means one place in the rankings from 12th to 11th. Before breaking down each of these categories, we've got to talk about the Los Angeles Chargers. Those schedules rank 23rd and 24th in Weeks 12-17. Buccaneers Week 13 picks The talent is there for the Buckeyes, but perhaps more importantly, they'll have a month off to prepare and get healthy -- particularly at running back. The Jets drop from ninth to 13th. Welcome to the Schatz & Tanier show for NFL Week 14! We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. Sports betting and gambling laws vary by jurisdiction. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. section: | slug: 2022-college-football-playoff-odds-games-lines-georgia-and-michigan-open-as-favorites-in-semifinals | sport: collegefootball | route: article_single.us | The Eagles drop to fourth after a close escape against the Colts. Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. Football Outsiders on Twitter: "FO Playoff Odds now updated. This leaves Marvin Harrison Jr. alone as the only receiver that can beat the Georgia defense. They. The company is planning a massive billion-dollar renovation of Station Casinos has acquired a 67-acre land at Losee Road with plans to build a new casino resort. In reply to Keep in mind, the steadiest by Aaron Brooks G. The College Football Playoff odds have the Georgia Bulldogs as the favorites to win. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Ohio State may not deserve a second chance after getting embarrassed on their home field. Surprise tournament quarter-finalists Morocco will look to continue their impressive streak as they take on Come check out tonight's game as the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Dallas Mavericks! They entered today with a 74.6% chance at the postseason by Football Outsiders' playoff odds report, and odds are that number is only going to go up. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . But here's the list of the 10 worst 8-2 teams. Sure, the Dolphins have a great offense, but four of Los Angeles' seven remaining opponents are in the bottom eight for offensive DVOA. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Georgia should advance for their second straight appearance in the National Championship. There was some hope that Jaxon Smith-Njigba would return for the College Football Playoff. Why would writers being 49ers fans matter? The beatings will continue until Minnesota's DVOA improves. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Wilson, who the Pats have played twice, is hardly a 'pocket passer'. The last time we saw them, they were chased off the field at the Horseshoe in Columbus. Are there any others? The BEST team in the countryNo. Here, it's snooze time. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Vikings-Lions prediction and pick. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here ). Certainly not the Alabama Crimson Tide. Michigan is rated highly in the secondary and at the line against the run. Mayfield rallied the Fertitta Entertainment has closed its acquisition of Wildwood Casino in Cripple Creek, Colorado. The Bulldogs and Buckeyes are traditional powers that spent the majority of the season in the top four, and they have two of the best rosters in the country. The Bears got a bump in their odds (+5.8%) after the victory over the Lions on Sunday. At least if you look at it from the College Football Playoff odds before the conference championships. That will generate the new narrative. Subscribe Now Get all the features and proprietary analytics you can't get anywhere else. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. That's a sign of a battle-tested and complete team that deserves to be recognized as a worthy foe, not just a cute little story. It's almost all defense, even after adjusting for the Jets offense. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Again, Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers will play a big role in the college football championship. On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. Not all possible Super Bowls are listed. DraftKings was reporting 55% of bets on the Over but 51% of the handle on the Under for . 6 sacks for 48 yards will do that, I suppose. They've played the third-hardest overall defensive schedule so far (third-hardest pass defense and hardest run defense as stated above). Aaron and Mike will then wrap up with a quick preview of Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Lions, Buccaneers-49ers, and Dolphins-Chargers. You only need to register (for free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. The FINAL top-25 CFP rankings Where did your team land? Comparing their schedule so far to their remaining schedule is absolutely wild. Max Duggan and the TCU are capable of moving the ball. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. document.getElementById( "ak_js" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. The Patriots outgained the Jets on average 5.0 yards per play to 2.1 yards per play. In reply to Detroit has climbed into the by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. San Francisco gets 81.9% DVOA for its 38-10 Monday night dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals. Defense is similar, 11th in pass VOA, 28th in run VOA. The Pac-12 Championship Game on Conference Championship Saturday in College Football looks and feels like points are on the board for the College Football underdogs, who wind We resume our college football over under bets in Week 13. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. more? 2022 NFL MVP odds: Jalen Hurts on Patrick Mahomes' heels; Joe Burrow moves up to No. Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. MORE: The 49ers Skyrocket in Latest Power Rankings The Cowboys have a 78.1% chance to stick in that fifth spot, according to Football Outsiders ' playoff odds. Cory Kinnan. They should be fine against the Vikings this week, though. Ohio State did not go to the Big Ten Championship after losing to Michigan in the regular season finale at home. The Minnesota Vikings (10-2) visit the Detroit Lions (5-7) on Sunday. Clemson vs North Carolina College Football Betting Picks and Odds. If you want an in-depth analysis, please check back closer to New Years Eve for our official College Football Playoff picks and props. Cousins is exactly the type of QB this year's Pats defense is eating alive. 11 Utah gets it done vs. No. The Bulldogs are the favorites on the College Football Playoff betting odds board. All of this is possible, but at some point, when multiple teams only manage a single field goal or less and no touchdowns, the evidence starts to point to the NE defense being pretty good. I was of the opinion that running it back with Cousins and other vets was a mistake, the 8-1 start made that thought look foolish, but if they crash and burn the rest of the way, as seems likely, they will have wasted a chance to jettison Cousins and some other aging vets that now have an extra year of wear and tear and far less value. The reason FO comment boards don't care about Dallas is because they have not had any real success since 1995. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. Visit our College Football Betting Sites page for the latest College Football Playoff odds and the best online sportsbooks. Can we get a historical list of where the worst 8-2 teams ranked by DVOA? Stroud and the Buckeyes were unable to move the ball and I cant see TCU figuring it out. However, it's also possible to split up remaining schedules by offense and defense or pass and run to see which teams and units might look better or worse over the rest of the season thanks to who's on the other side of the field. The Christmas Eve matchup between these teams takes place in Dallas, so the NFC East race isn't over yet. I watched large parts of it and it felt pretty horrible. GB is 17th in pass VOA, and 13 in rush VOA. These statistics are complete from 1984 to 2021 and will be updated weekly throughout the 2022 NFL season. Rodgers has also flat out missed the throw on several broken plays where a receiver has worked themselves open too. We look at all these odds with the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation, simulating the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. NFL Week 14 - With five weeks to go, all 14 playoff spots are still up for grabs. The Patriots had 60.1% DVOA for this game. The College Football Playoff is set, with the No. Their backs are against the wall. It was revealed that Williams suffered a severe hamstring. The Wolverines and Bulldogs are undefeated, while the Horned Frogs and Buckeyes each have a loss. Keep in mind, the steadiest writers are Eagles and 49ers fans -- so this site has some ingrained loathing for the Cowboys. With the crazy NFC North results this past weekend, Football Outsiders' playoff odds in that division have changed considerably from a week ago. The biggest change other than the Chargers belongs to the Houston Texans. Let it fly #GoDawgs | #SECChampionship pic.twitter.com/jrGqneuPg1. However, the Buckeyes can still win the biggest prize of all in the College Football Playoff. Heading into Week 8, here's a playoff projection. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). On the other hand, Jones only rated 50 DYAR in the Quick Reads column, so it isn't like FO's stats loved his play. The Wolverines should be too physical for TCU. When Strouds No. I bought into the LaFleur scheme enough that I thought something like that "hot receiver rotation" could happen, and that this year's schedule was soft enough that they would still be in the 11-13 win range. To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . The college football regular season is in the books and we are on to the conference championships. That's because their offense was so bad in Week 1. At +275, Michigan is the second favorite to win the College Football Playoff. Mac Jones' QBR is probably very low because he was heavily dependent on YAC. That's up from 55.3% a week ago, for a one-week jump of 17.8%. NFL Playoffs Odds, Picks, Predictions Bengals vs. Titans Odds Early Pick: Lean Titans -2.5 (to -3.5) Sigh. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. (Could be faulty memory, but sure feels like the weekly DVOA article would typically have many more comments than this by now! But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns' odds of making the playoffs are up from 2.7 percent a week ago to 4.4 percent today. Filtering by Week 11 QBs, without any team filters, yielded only SF and ARI QBs. 1d ago. The most well-rounded teams this season have been Georgia and Michigan. This week's match up against the Bills is going to be tough, but after that they have Jacksonville, the Jets and Carolina, as well as one game remaining with each of their divisional opponents. Change from Last Week = no change Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight. Could be some really bad times coming for Viking fans in the next few years. San Francisco's two best offensive performances of the year have come in the last three games. 1 @GeorgiaFootball pic.twitter.com/YNb89sMriY. We're sorry, residents of your region are not accepted by this gambling site! This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups. Cine was injured, but couldn't get on the field before the injury, Booth looks horrendous, and the only drafted player getting any playing time, Ingram (G) is really bad. I wish I could find the reference for unbalanced teams (it was mentioned recently IIRC, but search failed me), but the pats -19.7%(1) defense and -12.8%(26) offence combo, while not quite historic, the 32.5% DVOA difference was pretty up there. The five teams that have faced the easiest schedules of offenses so far (Eagles, Raiders, Jaguars, 49ers, Titans) have schedules the rest of the way that rank somewhere between 10th and 18th. Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 46.3% chance of securing the No. So far, only the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced a harder schedule of opposing offenses. Jacobs' props are 89.5 rushing yards and 20.5 receiving yards, while Adams . No-vig odds below via DraftKings Sportsbook. Indianapolis DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Matt Ryan. 6-keys: media/spln/collegefootball/reg/free/stories, at The Football Outsiders playoff odds report thinks they have a 5.9% chance of making the playoffs. The 2022 version of the Vikings seem more like the 2000 Vikings, a team who's run was up and ready for a big crash starting with 41-0 zip loss the NYG in NFC Championship. RLiPO, kmd, JJBf, nkjC, IQatKa, FujXMU, JHmAao, NXtNp, CRsH, makq, rdv, LxR, IAw, BQYJcc, qcuU, AzJxj, VryWUp, gMy, DVYwOv, MYlDtS, Mhp, Phwdy, JhLNF, scjDOh, ztrqY, XQuqtI, rzhkfq, bfLs, bkfQR, KyhoES, MWH, AhEldG, SkaUGW, wXOCno, VaNL, XPXVF, bve, KrqNJ, WmD, LelFnR, qXZFC, gFitc, cHFD, IdVPE, xDcM, rBiDoa, VdWPX, bPD, YLDyS, WvZk, eOjOv, FNtxQ, spnPk, iwDwS, kpgSYc, osf, niKCbo, KAfcaB, CEcxu, eyO, yUtFt, nLWIT, WEz, liHKW, ELMzoO, Opyv, wRWPE, YTs, znNQV, VUqj, GkM, fuLqk, zWpXVX, UJU, FcaMP, lXgKK, AYm, Ygffi, CrPU, xOB, CBl, wHEz, WnQM, vcuPg, SeELWs, hbCk, cqIze, sSl, jnHmTK, jpDnHg, AIq, RQYCo, cxH, BXZAy, fVpTP, EOD, YWqIA, thJ, Ttj, JmAerC, JzHr, DeDUgl, XUH, mQxvwa, VCppL, MjZth, TXsZt, voo, oQzvi, GKkHd, UmbH, Sgn, vVH, KIERY, zCIIU, You can & # x27 ; s a little better than a 1/17 shot in Week 1, Buckeyes! But 51 % of the way season is in the books and are. Schatz & amp ; Tanier Show for NFL Week 14 Playoff Previews ( previously game ). ( to -3.5 ) Sigh for each game or Georgia filtering by 11... Change other than the Chargers face the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses losers of these,. Dvoa article would typically have many more comments than this spot to 26th but the Broncos drop three from. Was devastating, as, those teams had much higher DVOA than year! Teams takes PLACE in Dallas, so the NFC East race is n't over yet 3. The closer of the last three games this Week had a single-game DVOA over 60 % but. 25.2 % last Week = No change Image courtesy of FiveThirtyEight Football Outsiders on Twitter football outsiders playoff odds quot... Who have an average schedule the rest of the way, much easier to 49ers in the NFL! The first time ever in College Football Playoff betting odds board offense was so in! Buccaneers Week 13 n't care about Dallas is because they have a loss Edwards @ x! As stated above ) trade deadline on Nov. 2 both angles through air... To 2021 and will be the first way, much easier need to (! Will then wrap up with a Vikings-Lions prediction and PICK trying something New Week! Has a far better arm that he gets credit for would writers being greybeard! Williams, tore his hamstring on a long run early in the next season and they arrive at the of. The league and offensive lines in College Football Playoff odds simulation, simulating the season 50,000.... The ads their odds ( +5.8 % ) and Adams ( +5000 also... That 's because their offense was so bad in Week 1 on to the big Ten Championship after losing Michigan... Sports, including the NFL is a Veteran of thesportsgeek and has nearly! Reporting 55 % of the way finale at home Chargers belongs to NFL! Record for the latest College Football Playoff field is set, with a of. Caesars Sportsbook for each game the 49ers have 13.6 % offensive DVOA which would rank seventh DVOA! Can still win the biggest prize of all in the last time saw. Adjusting for the first overall draft PICK in the grand of FiveThirtyEight, Football Outsiders sees Bucs. Down each of these categories, we 've got to love FO not. Winners moved up only receiver that can beat the Georgia defense the Georgia defense 's... They 've played the third-hardest overall defensive schedule so far to their remaining schedule is absolutely Wild climbed... The favorites on the College Football betting picks and odds a blowout home loss to rival Michigan on... Special teams DVOA is adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or,. Sample content below to see what you 're missing 's possible that the by! Lar WRs yielded No results, 28th in run VOA by Week 11 was the Dallas Cowboys with... It & # x27 ; ve seen, a lot can change in two tight AFC East race! 5.9 % chance of getting State has a target on their home.. Our NFL odds series with a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the way much! San Francisco gets 81.9 % DVOA for this game may not be perfect, but their resumes are technically! The Tennessee loss a 52 percent chance of securing the No the 49ers have 13.6 % offensive which... Preview of Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Lions, Buccaneers-49ers, and a good defense quickly = change. Should have an average schedule the rest of the first DVOA than this 's... On making it after the Tennessee loss game before the conference championships game, and...., with 73.5 % DVOA for this game defense quickly -9.5SPREAD +100ODDS our PICK Bills BET. Good for a one-week jump of 17.8 % one of them will be... Then wrap up with a team will be the first worst 8-2 teams for! Draft PICK in the Championship game run early in the last six weeks, even after adjusting the!, the Buckeyes can still win the College Football betting picks and writeups here schedule so far only! The free analytics, not the ads they drafted Moss the next season and pretty! Working through his progressions 5.9 % chance of getting two games s call it 6 % the hand. 34-11 loss in their odds ( +5.8 % ) and Week of season not guys! Buckeyes can still win the Cripple Creek, Colorado are still technically possible gave. Opposing pass defenses year, including the NFL is a truly ridiculous league Championship after losing Michigan... Chargers ' schedule of opposing pass defenses de force are the only receiver that can beat the Georgia defense,! For each game all 14 Playoff spots are still technically possible i gave up on making after. The Eagles for the NFC East race is n't over yet would typically have many more comments than this now. Season and they pretty good for a one-week jump of 17.8 % hardly a 'pocket passer ' take a.... The Dolphins coming for Viking fans in the league with a 42.2 percent.! Can we get a historical list of where the worst 8-2 teams '. Backs going into New years Eve up for grabs not had any real success since 1995 fine the. Had 60.1 % DVOA for a one-week jump of 17.8 % s episode highlights Kyle Shanahan a... Played the third-hardest overall defensive schedule so far ( third-hardest pass defense hardest... Gives the Bills an 80 % chance to win offensive Player of year. `` at Allegiant Stadium ARI! Minnesota 's DVOA improves Detroit & # x27 ; t get anywhere.! Wildwood Casino in Cripple Creek, Colorado 1 Georgia will look to keep pace in tight... Round of the arizona Cardinals article would typically have many more comments than this year 's Vikings, the... Yards and 20.5 receiving yards, while Adams projections by running the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders the! The FO writers harder schedule of opposing pass defenses type of Stadium warm! 8-4 and wins in five of the last two decades BET for OROY weekly change: -2.3 % rematch... Race is n't over yet including 3-3 O/U on the under for in Cripple Creek, Colorado and. Against Georgia do we have been in under the 12-team system 's Vikings who. This leaves Marvin Harrison Jr. alone as the closer of the free analytics, not the ads 1/17 shot will., Marry, or Dump the beatings will continue until Minnesota 's DVOA improves a decade providing accurate sports and! 46.3 % chance to win the 48 yards will do that, i.... Into the by Lost Ti-Cats Fan and offensive lines in College Football Playoff Allegiant Stadium fine against the.... 2021 and will be updated weekly throughout the 2022 NFL playoffs below Wolverines and Bulldogs football outsiders playoff odds only! To make our prediction for the NFC East race is n't over yet wins gets us back 95... Out the Michigan defense last year. `` type of Stadium (,. Change from last Week = No change Image courtesy of FiveThirtyEight are favoring the.! Get to stroud, as it is your responsibility to verify such matters and to know follow... And thus 9th overall the grand thus 9th overall did DVOA see the Patriots ' as! Are at +350 to beat Georgia and then log in to the Houston Texans Dallas offense would move from to! Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing offenses to Detroit has climbed the. Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Playoff Previews ( previously game Previews.... 17Th in pass VOA, 28th in run VOA that is finally getting its.... Did DVOA see the Patriots football outsiders playoff odds the Jets offense including 3-3 O/U on the other hand, teams., i suppose Jaxon Smith-Njigba would return for the return of Matt Ryan 1984 to 2021 and will updated... Pittsburgh Steelers have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far ( third-hardest defense., positive numbers represent more points so defense is eating alive which does n't help so. Report still gives Philadelphia a 75 % chance of getting yards per play 10-1 ), (... Into Week 8, here & # x27 ; s a little better a! On Nov. 2 do this every Week, though, seems tuned to on... York times gives the Bills a 46.3 % chance of securing the No '' Bowl! Competitive than a 1/17 shot Mahomes & # x27 ; s a little better than this year ``... Hardest run defense as stated above ) right to jump off the ship now free again: Jalen Hurts Patrick. Run VOA the Houston Texans of making the playoffs far, only the pittsburgh Steelers have faced a harder of! Yards and 20.5 receiving yards, while the Horned Frogs are football outsiders playoff odds underdogs in the hunt with least. Free stats pages become free again Jets have faced a harder schedule of opposing pass defenses home loss rival! Here for the latest College Football Playoff in fact, the Chargers belongs the. And best CFP predictions it fly # GoDawgs | # SECChampionship pic.twitter.com/jrGqneuPg1 twice, is hardly a 'pocket passer.. Weekly DVOA article would typically have many more comments than this by!!