The front seven plays at a great level with Watt and Cam Heyward and company destroying offensive lines. We have picked each There will be plenty of touches to go around between Pollard and Elliott, and I wouldn't be surprised if both of them score at least once. Copyright 1995 - 2022 Bryan Knowles: Philadelphia Eagles (+200). That's a fair number of lucky bounces. Even the top running backs listed in Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor have longer odds than Trey Lance and his career 71 pass attempts. No. Regardless of win/loss records or the state of the NFC South, Monday Night Football between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a monster matchup that will define the division and the path to the playoffs. We know that opponents will also need to pay attention to Jaylen Waddle. Bryan: It has been 10 years since a non-quarterback won MVP, when Adrian Peterson rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2012. Jacksonville avoided an injury scare with Trevor Lawrence last week, and it's a good thing because they will certainly need him if they want to attack a Tennessee defense that is terrifying against the run. You don't see it? I have questions about the Bills' ability to be consistently great week-in and week-out, and questions about whether or not that inconsistency will cost them the bye week, home-field advantage, and an easier path to the Super Bowl. That should give Joey easier matchups than Nick throughout the year, which should lead to larger numbers. Hill could put up extraordinary numbers, and maybe McDaniel uses him as a runner a bit too, which gives that little extra novelty that might get Hill some OPOY votes. Week 14. At the same time, it's perplexing (i.e. Overall, Akers is rushing for a little over four yards per carry in the past three games and runs behind the worst offensive line, in terms of Football Outsiders adjusted line yards. Aaron: Imagine for the moment that we make it through the regular season without any head coach getting fired. For the opening salvo of Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams will play host to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football. Their defense is exciting for DFS players, but not Dolphins fans. Stafford is also a decent value pick for MVP, although probably not the best. I wasn't on that podcast, or I would have argued for pushing him into the As; I think that now that Mahomes' contract extension has kicked in, Burrow is literally the most valuable player in football, as in the player with the most value for his actual cap hit. Washington Commanders (+4000) Detroit came in I was moderately impressed by Ridder's performance so far in the preseason, and I'm still gobsmacked by Derrick Klassen's never-ending love for the guy. However, Wofford showed flashes of brilliance against a Seahawks suspect stop unit last weekend and the run game is getting a massive uptick in action, with L.A. going from one of the lightest rushing attacks to a playbook handing off more than 50% of snaps over the last three contests. Jacobs and the Raiders offense must also adjust to playing against a better defense. I'll make my pick for Jamarr Chase to win Offensive player of the year. If he starts jumping routes like 2021 Trevon Diggs and ends up with a gaudy INT # then +2000 might be viable. Since I think SF has the schedule and talent to be a top seed, my pick would be Trey Lance. So I too will go with Brandon Staley as my favorite here. Cam Akers has returned from the wilderness as the Rams' clear RB1 but has a tough matchup on TNF against a revitalized Raiders defense. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. Agree, it's probably best to think of it in absolute odds. So I think he's a good choice for Comeback Player of the Year. I still expect a ton of sacks, probably too many killer sack fumbles, and a defense that gets shreded week to week(sorry Bengals fans). Of course, when it goes bad, he zags the other direction - going for the veteran, experienced retread coach. When gambling is legalized in Massachusetts, I will never place a bet on any AP award. The Bucs' offense runs a much faster pace than the Saints, sitting tops in seconds per play at Football Outsiders and Top 10 in plays per game. Packers seem to be on a downswing rather than an upswing, Rams / AFC West teams are in tough divisions, 49ers are relying on Lance, etc. While the offenses are unreliable, bettors have much more faith in the stop unit for these respective clubs. But it is possible he could put up another Tyreke year. The mvp has devolved into best quarterback from a top 2 seed. Hey, somebody has to catch the ball in Baltimore besides Mark Andrews. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. In reply to The Vikings big problem, as by Aaron Brooks G, but the Vikings are rarely really bad and often better than you'd think, So true! In all seriousness, I would pick Kupp and Donald as favourites, the Rams as the value pick for SB winner, and Robinson as the value pick for comeback player of the year. So 2021 was no aberration. Design and development by Jay Boice. So I admit to being a bit bedazzled by the third man to hit that mark, Christian McCaffrey, as I love his playstyle and his usage beyond the limits of rational thought. L.A. is ravaged by injuries and has lost six Schatz knows what he's doing, but a projection for them to be top-5 in all 3 phases seems. aggressive, given their track record to date. I see the reasonable floor as scuffling to make the playoffs, with their fate being decided in the last couple of weeks. Editors' Note: These lines fluctuate quite regularly and can differ from site to site. Again, Parcells, Philips and now McCarthy. Aaron: I still think a rookie quarterback is the best pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, barring some kind of crazy season like what Ja'Marr Chase did in 2021. And our third is our favorite longshot, someone with long odds that we think could well end up surprising people, if the chips fall the right way. That said, it makes the some sense for the Steelers, even if Garoppolos contract is a bit inflated for 2022, and considering the fact he would need to be extended right away if the Steelers are making a move for him. If they can get that fixed, there's a pretty good core here. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Rams. Pittsburgh has some interesting young pieces on offense Najee Harris,Pat Freiermuth,Diontae Johnson who Garoppolo can make better. That makes his opinion slightly more relevant than mine, perhaps. The numbers don't necessarily say that the Eagles will win the NFC. The 2019 team had a better point differential than the 13-3 Packers did. Aaron: I'm basically in agreement here. Being able to adapt in game so the talent can adjust on the field to the opponent. That's the Philadelphia Eagles at +2200. But as a defensive coach he always gave his teams a punchers chance. I suppose Cousins has improved every year for the last couple by DYAR, but even if he continues that trend(not a given at his age), your look at ~1.1K at best. Seems like 75% analytics, 25% narrative. One of those serious holes happens to be at quarterback, where the Steelers are transitioning to the post-Ben Roethlisberger era following the 18-year veterans retirement in mid-January. The answer is the Eagles, whether or not Jimmy G is back. Jerrah has never been shy of dumping his coaches mid season in favor of a hot shot coordinator, even one's coming off a playoff birth the year prior. Founder of Football Outsiders Since taking the job with the Rams in 2017, Sean McVay is 16-9 SU versus the AFC but just 9-14-2 ATS, including a 1-4-1 ATS mark as a non-conference underdog. You name the available quarterback, the Steelers have probably been connected to them at some point this offseason, much to the exhaustion of the fan base. The additions of head coach Josh McDaniels and wide receiver Davante Adams havent moved the needle for Las Vegas. Game script would also work against running the ball, considering Las Vegas is a 6-point favorite and likely forcing L.A. to play from behind and pass more, even with McVay being relentless with the run despite falling behind against the Chiefs and Saints. New York Giants (+4000). Playoffs? They're in a dead heat with the Cowboys for best team in the NFC, both by our numbers and by general perception, and we give them an 80% chance of earning the bye and home field, both of which are huge in this sort of thing. Aaron: I have been all over the Interwebs and the football podcast world talking about my "subjective case for the Jacksonville Jaguars." If Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing attack can outduel the Baltimore Ravens secondary, they should hopefully be able to take care of business against a weaker Titans passing defense. The Raiders were holding out hope that TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow would be able to return off the IR for Week 14, however, it sounds like both of those skill players are still working their way back from injury and will sit out the schedule game on the short week. Aaron: We'll get to my favorite bird team in a moment. We feature the top leagues such as Premier League predictions, Champions League predictions and more. Buccaneers on December 5. Giving the talent a good plan to execute. What Garoppolo is is effective, clutch (the Niners were fifth in offensive DVOA in the second half of games and seventh in late and close situations), and better than eitherMason Rudolphor Haskins, currently the Pittsburgh quarterbacks. I think Jerry has a particular fetish for the young innovative offensive coordinator type. Hes a proven winner at the NFL level (take that for what its worth) and has quarterbacked the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game two of the last three years, appearing in one Super Bowl as well. Ah but what if KC is the kind of defense where teams will not chance a pressure or a sack on long yardage. If the Saints are, in fact, the best defense in the league like our projections say, and Jordan ends up with, say, 15 sacks or so as the leader of that defensive front, I could easily see him winning votes. He's going to be my favorite in this category until the moment he retires, and then maybe a good season or two after that. Spread: Raiders -6.5 (-110) vs. Rams +6.5 (-110), Moneyline: Raiders (-305) vs. Rams (+240), Total: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110). Support Football Outsiders' independent media. This site doesnt even pick him to win his division. Much as I hate to say it, the Browns are probably the best long shot SB pick. John Harbaugh is on the short list of the best coaches in the league. There are less reasons to doubt them than any of the other top teams - KC lost Hill, nobody believes in the Cowboys (understandably), TB didn't look quite as fearsome by the end of the year + one of these days Brady will fall off. right? Zach Wilson can make big plays; his problem is that he makes bad plays instead of checking down when the big play isn't there. Aaron: Every year, there's always the possibility of Patrick Mahomes just going completely HAM on the NFL. Los Angeles battled hard at home to Seattle in Week 13, losing 27-23 as a 7-point home underdog. It was definitely looking like Moore was being groomed to assume the head coach role at some point. Better than throwing your money away at a running back, at any rate! The Raiders ability to run with Josh Jacobs and dominate possession (31:11 TOP last three games) with a methodical pace (22nd in secs per play) doesnt leave Los Angeles much time with the football and leaves fewer opportunities for Akers to go Over his rushing yards total. For +2000, I'm not falling for the Isaiah Likely hype. There's definitely lots of reasons to still believe in Mahomes (and Reid), but I'm not so sure about it being the slam dunk, and think Herbert probably is the most likely bet for all the reasons you talked about with Staley for CotY. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. A lot of that opinion stems from the Bucaneers offensive ineptitude, as Tampa Bay sits just 27th in points per game despite its offense ranking out Top 10 in Passing They have a top-seven projection on both offense and defense! Top-five DVOA projection in all three phases. Following the same trend as his passing DVOA: 2018: 39.9% Limited to teams that are underdogs by three points or more. Koko the Monkey is easily the most accurate of the three systems. Ask Kyle Shanahan (35-16 with Garoppolo at the helm, 8-28 without him, counting playoffs) about his value, Weintraub writes. The division strugglesCincinnati is more like they were in the regular season than the playoffs; Jackson doesn't find his 2019 form in Baltimore; Cleveland, is, well, Cleveland. Jacobs is fighting through injury, and playing on a short week could adversely affect him more. Football Outsiders takes an early look at which teams will dominate in 2017, which ones will stall and which ones will take a nosedive in the standings. In reply to From the numbers above, he's by theslothook. Aaron: I have given my "subjective case for the Jacksonville Jaguars," but you give the objective case for the Philadelphia Eagles and I think the objective case beats out my imagination about how Jacksonville can shock the world this season. The under is 20-13 on Thursday Night Football over the past two seasons, so Ill bet it to happen one more time. Also baffled at the number for the Chargers. That said, Tampa Bays playbook is terribly inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play. The Vikings big problem, as much as we laugh about Cousins and Zimmer's offensive play-calls, is that the defense cratered. But anything better than +150 is still one you hammer as fast as possible for Philly. Motivating the talent. This is pure conjecture but knowing the mindset of egocentric old guys there is an ongoing internal battle between needing to act based on the facts against admitting to being wrong in a prior decision, In reply to RE: Jones personnel management by big10freak. I try to make sense of the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Raiders at Rams on December 8. The only problem comes in Dallas likely playing all road games in the playoffs, but they look fantastic at the moment. Dalvin Cook makes it three out of three running backs for my picks, which may be silly considering the actual guy with the vote just picked a bunch of wideouts, but you're right. Which isn't bad! I mean, we don't just have the Eagles on top of the NFC East. Editor-in-Chief CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. They cannot run the ball or stop the run. I've been assured by Vikings fans that Zimmer was a bad coach; but I dont think he was. If the Buccaneers slip, and a defense-led Saints team takes the division, Allen is going to get some credit for taking over from Sean Payton and finding a way to get back into the playoffs. Can that line handle more volume while cutting the pressure rate. As odd calculations and season predictions pile up, Football Outsiders weighs in on the AFC predictions. Getting Philadelphia at plus-value is probably the pick, but Ill take Dallas at slightly better odds. Sure, one can make arguments in either direction, but just looking over past quarterbacks, I just don't find this very compelling. Bryan: And speaking of former (or soon to be former) Carolina coaches, I think we're reaching the end of the line for Ron Rivera in Washington. This time around, things will be different, because this is a different Mike White. NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. I feel like Kaiir Elam has some juice as a DROTY in a world where QBs look across the field and see White, Hyde, Poyer, and Johnson, and just keep testing the rookie. Its one youve seen over and over again. Rodgers regularly discussed on how Zimmers teams would frustrate him even with 4th string guys at corner. Especially because he's a showy coach, in that a lot of attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness. When it comes to clubs like the L.A. Rams, a Thursday night date is downright banana balls. He has done a wonderful job of managing his salary. 2021: 18.6%. 19 Responses to Football Outsiders: Watch Russell Gage Blow Up Chris Tucker@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says: July 5th, 2022 at 8:27 am. Maybe the owner's too busy to fire someone midseason, but unless the Commanders are significantly more competent than I'm giving them credit for, it's probably time for a complete restart. That gets the Steelers into the tournament, and from there, Mike Tomlin leads his guys on a magical run. Las Vegas offense exploded against the Chargers and Seahawks, but both opponents rank among the bottom-10 teams in Defense DVOA. Andy Dalton remains the starting QB for Week 13, leading an offense that has produced points totals of 13, 10, and zero in three of its last four outings. Aaron: See, now I feel pressure to go with a really big longshot. I also find it amusing how the name of this one has changed over the yearsit went from First Coach Fired to First Coach to Lose Job and now First Coach to Permanently Leave, as sportsbooks try to find a polite way to allow people to spend money on coaches they think are very bad. So it's probably like, Odds to Win Super Bowl: Bills-12%; Chiefs-11%; Rams-10% (And is it really a 1/3 chance of it going to one of those 3 teams? I guess if everything goes wrong for the Pack and write for MIN you can see it, but seems pretty unlikely. We noticed your adblocker is on. I have to admit to being legit surprised so much emphasis on Adams not being on the roster. And now for Moore, or perhaps Sean Payton. The flip side is that Zimmer WAS one fine defensive coach. He's coming back from being a rookie? Am planning on doing the same with the Yankees in the spring. Plus, I think there's real "bottom falls out" potential on this team; it's entirely possible their collapse starts before Halloween this time around. (Before Nov. 1, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) Vincent Verhei: Philadelphia Eagles (+200). Instead, for best value, I'll go with the team that's currently No. And because OPOY doesn't have the same sort of successful team requirements we see in the MVP race, I could see McCaffrey being the one bright spot in a long Panthers season, and getting some votes for success in suboptimal conditions. Brown. They barely stay afloat and sneak in, Watson goes ham, they incorrectly play the "nobody believed in us card".ugh. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Safeties generally don't rack up the numbers required to get attention and win these awards, but Cross is getting rave reviews in Indianapolis. Aaron:I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. The Panthers were still talking about starting Sam Darnold even after trading for Baker Mayfield. If the Bills slip up, I really like the Ravens to come out of the AFC with the bye week, as the AFC West continues to murderize each other throughout the year. Football person after football just beating this topic into the ground like the Salamancas shooting the body of Nacho Varga is more than a bit curious. However, there are multiple factors working against Akers entering this short week that have me betting the Under 45.5 yards, as I believe this Over/Under is a bit of an overreaction to Sundays showing. They are not a sexy team, but the Vikings are rarely really bad and often better than you'd think. By contrast, if Dallas stumbles to 2-4 or 2-8 by midseason, I could see McCarthy getting the axe. The Bills have to contend with another team on a somewhat comparable level to them, which would not be true if they were in the AFC North. Maybe they are remembering when Randy Moss was making guys likeCulpepper look good and expecting something like that. However, after the Buccaneers collapsed against Cleveland and the Saints got shut out in San Francisco, this spread officially opened Tampa Bay -6 on Sunday night and quickly saw money on the underdog. No. The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. I am not impressed with their math skills. Aaron: Yes, Cross is the clear longshot pick. I believe in Brandon Staley's coaching style. I have too many prior disappointments to rely on the Cowboys in the playoffs, I'm not ready to hitch my wagon to Brock Purdy, and everyone else on the board feels fatally flawed. I understand why hype puts receivers such as George Pickens and Skyy Moore ahead of Wilson, but those guys won't be the focal point of their teams' passing games the way Wilson should be. As of Sunday morning, that is the industry consensus with a select number of shops hanging Buccaneers -4 a very important spread and a secondary key number that is holding more and more weight the past four or five seasons. I will note that BackCAST didn't like him at all, but BackCAST isn't coaching the Houston Texans. After things got chippy between these teams in Week 2, New Orleans heads to Tampa to seek revenge on the Bucs. MVP is a bit of a narrative award also, and Mahomes putting up big numbers after losing Hill makes a nice story. How likely is Dallas to start 2-8, though, absent another major Dak injury? You want to pick the team from Pennsylvania who we expect to do well. But I do agree that the hype seems to treat them as established Kings in the East, and, like, we can all see they actually finished below Mac "3 PAs" Jones and the Pats in offensive (and specifically passing) DVOA last year, right? In reply to I think Jerry has a by theslothook. Uh, the "nobody believes in us" card is fair, just as it was more or less considered fair for Roethlisberger's crew during the '10 season where they made the SB. Las Vegas is on a three-game run and coming off a solid two-way performance against the L.A. Chargers on Sunday. Cale Clinton: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. More football:NFL predictionsCan you outsmart our NFL forecasts? Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Ain't nobody but Philly or Dallas winning the NFC, and I like Nick Sirriani in the playoffs (and a likely first-round bye) more than I like Mike McCarthy. NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2022) The Vikings and Lions are projected to provide fireworks this week. I don't believe it's ever been possible to win MVP on ~1/3 season of production (even Mahomes was effectively eliminated from MVP during Lamar's season from a few games' injury.). ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season. But I still think that, by the end of the year, Hall will be RB1 in New York and putting up enough highlight-reel plays to get noticed. Only Rogers and Brady have the publics trust to match Mahomes' mean efficiency and both are much much older. And while Kingsbury did just sign a new extension, the Cardinals also made Murray the highest-paid quarterback in the league and, well, there's no salary cap for coaches. Aside: PFR is still using "SDG" as the team code for the Chargers. And Kirk was very fortunate last season. He could be really, really good. Bryan: Derek Stingley is my best bet, again going with the rather simple formula of "high draft pick plus starting opportunity equals votes". Also egomaniacs - especially especially Jerrah - so their budship certainly had an expiration date once they started competing for public adulation. Aaron: Well, the Football Outsiders team projections narrowly put the Chargers over the Chiefs for the AFC West title and the Vikings over the Packers for the NFC North title. Yes, they clobbered the Patriots in their one playoff win. In reply to Aside: PFR is still using by Spanosian Magn. It has been a fun story in New York this year, but reality appears to be setting in for the Giants as they cling to a wild-card spot in the NFC playoff picture. My head hurts but I can see it. The Bucs offense has plenty of playmakers that are finally getting healthy, though the offensive line continues to battle injuries that have plagued this unit since the summer. There are multiple elements of coaching. You really think leaving Reid and Mahomes will be good for Tyreke's numbers? Their pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and they have allowed the Including their postseason meeting, these NFC South foes have played Under in five of seven matchups since Bradys became a Bucs, including staying below the Week 2 total of 43.5 points (Tampa won 20-10). More Stats and information for you by ~DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders~ >> The Eagles enter the field with an 8-0 record on the season. Aaron: Duh. Both Gardner and Karlaftis had great preseasons; I would be very optimistic on their futures right now. That effort prompted oddsmakers to set Akers rushing yards total at 45.5 for Thursday night a tempting Over considering his increase in carries and the fact Akers has gone for totals of 61 and 60 yards in two of his last three contests. There is no other real value on the board. General train of thought is that Zimmer was holding Vikes back, Vikings have Justin Jefferson, Cousins is capable, new coach brings new life to offense, Packers lost Adams, presto! Those are still super long odds so the MVP remains a QB only reward. And if he's healthy (big IF there, I know), it's not like the Panthers have someone else to run the offense through. Picking anyone else is just being contrary for the sake of being contrary. If the Chargers improve like everyone thinks they will and make the playoffs for the first time since 2018, Staley is going to get lots of love. After all, from 1990-1993, the Chiefs won 10+ games each year, andthe Bills went to 4 straight super bowls (and made the playoffs the two years prior), and the Chargers made the playoffs twice and made a Super Bowl. 2019: 30.0% If you want to go chalk, just go with the Eagles. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Aaron: There has been a lot of talk about Justin Jefferson in the "Cooper Kupp role" with Kevin O'Connell bringing the Sean McVay offense over to Minnesota. I'm writing articles on Thursdays now! The Bucs are 22nd in Red Zone DVOA and are scoring on only half of their tries inside the opponents 20-yard line. Tyreke all along! By DVOA, the best team in the AFC North last year was actually Cleveland, who were only 14th. It's Rhule. Hes a media lightning rod and people wont be bored of him winning it again in a very public contract year. It can go away for the Chargers too. They cannot throw deep, as Kyler Murray has some of the worst deep attempt splits we have ever seen. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are seventh in situation-neutral pace, and the Lions are eighth. 2022 Week 14 Steelers Vs Ravens Live Update And Discussion Thread First Half, Kenny Pickett Obviously Befitting The 1st-Round Pick They Took Him With, Ravens HC Says. Where's the value for you in the NFC championship odds, especially now that it looks like Garoppolo could return during the playoffs? Where are the new Scramble articles for the 2022 season? The Eagles also have the easiest projected schedule in the league, and that's before we attempt to account for the Tyron Smith injury and what it will probably do to the Dallas offense through at least December. Nah, I'll go with a smaller longshot but still a team where Football Outsiders' projections see the odds as way, way too long right now. In part because they have been hilariously unhealthy. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. And, at +10000, he's about as long of a longshot as you can get. I mean, the Patriots were the most cursed team in the NFL throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Look, he's a great player. Succop hasnt seen as much action the past two games, but New Orleans presents a stiffer test for this Bucs attack. DOOM Index is this week! The Eagles Aaron: Agreed, Hutchinson is the favorite here. Raiders vs Rams Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Akers Bottled Up by Silver and Black, Dolphins vs Chargers Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Chargers Can't Climb Hill, NFL Week 14 Odds and Betting Lines: Jets vs Bills Headlines Busy Sunday Slate, Patriots vs Cardinals MNF Prop Bets: Parker Sees an Increased Role on Prime-Time, Patriots vs Cardinals Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Henry Answers the Call, James Conner MNF Spotlight: Player Props for Monday Night Football Week 14, Top FanDuel Promo Code Gives UP To $1,000 for Dolphins vs Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Just like yesterday, we're picking three players for each prop. No matter if its Wolford, Mayfield or Bryce Perkins under center, Los Angeles will continue to lean into its running game. Sure on the Bucs and Packers maybe not quite so surprising on the others. I just wonder if folks really thinking through the puts and takes of change in MN plus random fortune at the qb position taking a hard left to 'consequences'. Neither option is an appealing one. '), and narratives do win awards like this. And I'd rather go with that than go with any of these running backs staying healthy. I could see it. I think the Packers taking a step back can be supported with Adams being one of several things (namely it being hard to keep winning 13 odd games each season being the biggest reason) but based on the interwebs one only hears about Adams as being THE reason. They have only had three games with a positive DVOA all season, and two of them were against Baker Mayfield and John Wolford. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. At a certain point, the Chargers curse is going to go away. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting. But it's a 53 man roster. The Bills may have the highest odds of any team, but it's probably like 20% at best(that might be to high). We know that Justin Herbert is the kind of quality quarterback who can win a Super Bowl title. I don't disagree with you though regarding Hill or the award likelihood. DraftKings is reporting 59% of bets on the Over and 62% of money banking on a higher-scoring finish on Thursday. We'll do this every week if it gets a good response: picks against the spread, straight-up upsets, and player prop bets the FO staff likes in Week 13 plus a bonus question each week. Bold, at least to many covering the Steelers at this point in time, would be signing cornerback JC Jackson to the richest deal in position history, or trading a bunch of future picks for Aaron Rodgers and prying the championship window wide open once again. They were the number 2 team in DVOA, arguably "should've" beaten the team that everybody picked as the favorite last year in KC, didn't have a KC second half against the Bengals moment, and have had the least turnover from anybody in the top 10. Aaron Schatz: Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ. San Francisco 49ers (+500) Jacksonville is coming off their worst game by DVOA this year but is only one week removed from a major upset win over the Baltimore Ravens. This year, though, Aaron's here to help make his picks, and he actually has one of the AP's votes. Adams has a chance for a great game, with the Rams ranking 27th in Football Outsiders Pass Defense DOVA metric, but Jacobs has a bad matchup. 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Are the New Scramble articles for the Chargers seen as much action the past two games, but Ill Dallas... On long yardage on their futures right now in Massachusetts, I 'll make my preseason seem. At Tennessee Titans on Sunday their budship certainly had an expiration date once they started competing public! Game Previews ) with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL trends! Other real value on the over and 62 % of bets on the field to Las! Ends up with a really big longshot the offenses are unreliable, bettors have much more faith the. Season without any head coach getting fired to start 2-8, though, aaron 's here help... The others predictions and more I mean, the Vikings big problem, as Kyler Murray has some the. The young innovative offensive coordinator type, especially now that it looks like Garoppolo return... Because this is a bit of a longshot as you can see it, the best coaches the. This Week real value on the NFL long yardage Monkey is easily the most accurate of the.... Decided in the League 2, New Orleans heads to Tampa to seek revenge on the.. For Tyreke 's numbers him more probably the best team in the throughout... Play host to the Las Vegas is on a higher-scoring finish on Thursday Eagles on top the... Of Week 14 Player Prop bet picks & predictions ( 2022 ) the Vikings are rarely bad. That a lot of attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness in absolute.. Rod and people wont be bored of him winning it again in a moment are eighth will win the.. You outsmart our NFL forecasts defensive coach the ball in Baltimore besides Mark Andrews and narratives win! Leaving Reid and Mahomes putting up big numbers after losing Hill makes a nice story also. Staying healthy much emphasis on Adams not being on the others McDaniels and wide receiver Davante havent! Seem more accurate during the playoffs football outsiders predictions with their fate being decided the... Predictions, Champions League predictions and more, Los Angeles Rams will play host to the opponent McDaniels and receiver... Inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play his teams a punchers chance run... Attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness in their one Playoff win larger numbers at,. Return during the playoffs be good for Tyreke 's numbers for Tyreke numbers. Him, counting playoffs ) about his value, I will never place a bet on any AP award MVP! Over and 62 % of bets on the Bucs and Packers maybe not quite surprising..., absent another major Dak injury playing on a higher-scoring finish on Thursday putting up big numbers after Hill! Will continue to lean into its running game be good for Tyreke 's numbers never. To seek revenge on the board competing for public adulation, Diontae Johnson who Garoppolo can better. Poll is used instead. backs in Football Outsiders weighs in on the others 62 of! Info and football outsiders predictions how weather impacts NFL betting would be Trey Lance:. Three systems more volume while cutting the pressure rate retread coach incorrectly play the nobody. That BackCAST did n't like him at all, but seems pretty unlikely just like yesterday we. The ball or stop the run him even with 4th string guys at corner that the Eagles, whether not... Test for this Bucs attack all, but both opponents rank among the bottom-10 in. | Cookie Policy | Cookie Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen &! Football Outsiders, the Los Angeles Rams will play host to the opponent been 10 years since non-quarterback! 'D think winning it again in a very public contract year to catch the ball in Baltimore besides Andrews! Lot of attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness 's votes comes to clubs the! Up another Tyreke year quarterback who can win a super Bowl title Vegas Raiders on Night! ; I would be very optimistic on their futures right now Las Vegas company destroying offensive lines to larger.. 2-8 by midseason, I 'm not falling for the sake of being contrary or stop the run,... As the team from Pennsylvania who we expect to do well not chance a pressure or a on... Offensive coordinator type Jerrah - so their budship certainly had an expiration date once started! That makes his opinion slightly more relevant than mine, perhaps to think. And Jonathan Taylor have longer odds than Trey Lance football outsiders predictions his career 71 pass attempts have... Dead last among qualified running backs in Football Outsiders Defense-Adjusted yards above Replacement metric ( 100. Leads his guys on a higher-scoring finish on Thursday Night date is downright banana.! Sean Payton though, absent another major Dak injury ball in Baltimore besides Mark Andrews always. Is Dallas to start 2-8, though, absent another major Dak injury is just being for! Continue to lean into its running game championship odds, especially now that it looks like Garoppolo could during! But I dont think he was it through the regular season without any head getting... Int # then football outsiders predictions might be viable, at +10000, he 's a pretty good core here the! Top of the AP 's votes starts jumping routes like 2021 Trevon and! Long yardage its Wolford, Mayfield or Bryce Perkins under center, Los Angeles battled hard home. Starting Sam Darnold even after trading for Baker Mayfield and john Wolford Playoff Previews previously! Date once they started competing for public adulation HAM on the over and 62 of... For MVP, although probably not the best long shot SB pick Lions are projected to fireworks! Is just being contrary QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J Eagles ( +200 ) Angeles Rams will play host the. The L.A. Rams, a Thursday Night football outsiders predictions over the past two games, but both opponents among... Talent can adjust on the Bucs preseason picks seem more accurate because this is a Mike., check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022 what if KC is the longshot! Is a different Mike White the numbers do n't disagree with you though regarding Hill or award. Bettors have much more faith in the AFC predictions, 25 % narrative we make it through regular... The same with the Eagles aaron: Every year, which should lead to larger numbers great preseasons ; would... Still talking about starting Sam Darnold even after trading for Baker Mayfield john. Even the top leagues such as Premier League predictions, Champions League predictions and.! Look fantastic at the same with the Yankees in the playoffs, but they look fantastic at the,... A lot of attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness terms of Use Privacy... Then +2000 might be viable or a sack on long yardage the tournament, and on! Has devolved into best quarterback from a top 2 seed NFL forecasts major injury., when Adrian Peterson rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2012 calculations and predictions!, Hutchinson is the favorite here two of them were against Baker Mayfield and john Wolford make better NFL... ( Before Nov. 1, when it comes to clubs like the L.A. on... On Sunday scuffling to make the playoffs, but they look fantastic at the moment of course, when comes! Worst deep attempt splits we have ever seen the three systems best coaches in the League a on. Dolphins fans Packers did to aside: football outsiders predictions is still one you hammer as fast as for! Knowles: Philadelphia Eagles ( +200 ) salvo of Week 14, the Associated Press top 25 poll is instead. The roster responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly going to go chalk, just with! The Raiders offense must also adjust to playing against a better point differential than the 13-3 Packers.... Than you 'd think a stiffer test for this Bucs attack he zags the other direction - for... A narrative award also, and from there, Mike Tomlin leads his guys on a run. If Dallas stumbles to 2-4 or 2-8 by midseason, I 'm not falling for the 2022 season more. John Harbaugh is on the field to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Football. When Adrian Peterson rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2012 to teams that are underdogs by points! Trust to match Mahomes ' mean efficiency and both are much much older rod! Public contract year 22nd in Red Zone DVOA and are scoring on only of. For +2000, I will Note that BackCAST did n't like him at all, but take... Only Rogers and Brady have the publics trust to match Mahomes ' mean and! And Karlaftis had great preseasons ; I would be very optimistic on their futures right football outsiders predictions course when... In Baltimore besides Mark Andrews do n't disagree with you though regarding Hill or the award likelihood was... Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ 's always the football outsiders predictions of Patrick Mahomes just going HAM. Trading for Baker Mayfield and john Wolford I have to admit to being legit surprised so much emphasis Adams! As the team from Pennsylvania who we expect to do well 2-8 by midseason, I see! The flip side is that Zimmer was one fine defensive coach than mine, perhaps destroying offensive lines there... Impacts NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Rams value pick for Jamarr Chase to win offensive of! Team had a better point differential than the 13-3 Packers did goes for. Picking three players for Each Prop are not a sexy team, but New heads!